Creating county distribution maps

Update, 11 April 2020: Six years after writing the material below, I came up with a much better way of doing this and it took me a lot less time to get there.

Fun with QGIS! I figured out how to make a set of ca. 4000 county-level distribution maps for plants in New Mexico. These will eventually be part of Ken Heil & Steve O’Kane’s New Mexico flora project. Given that this is not a straightforward task, I thought I’d put a description of the process (including some wrong turns–I might leave those out next time) up here for my future reference. Maybe someone else will find it useful as well. Probably not, but who knows? So, Ken sent me a spreadsheet he’s put together that includes a list of species in the state with county distribution entered as a list in one of the columns. He has the data in a FileMaker database. I don’t really know what it looks like in there, but this is what it looked like when it got to me:

So, the first step – I had to figure out how to get this data into a form in which I can get it into QGIS. A presence / absence matrix seemed like a good idea, so I turned the cells with lists of abbreviated counties into a set of columns (via exporting as CSV, deleting all the field-delimiting quotation marks, and loading back into Excel):

Then I used all those columns to populate a matrix, via the following formula: “=IF(ISERROR(MATCH(“BER”,$H3:$AP3,FALSE)),”0″,$C3)”. “BER” is the county (Bernalillo) for this column of the matrix, “$H3:$AP3” is the range of cells listing counties for the plant on this row, and “$C3” is a cell containing the name of the species. So, if “BER” is in the county list, it returns the name of the species (I’m using the name as a marker for presence for reasons that will become clear later on–I used “1” initially, but that doesn’t end up working); if not, it returns “0”. I end up with something like this:

After poking around online for a while, I figured out that if I transposed this matrix (so it has a column of counties on the left and a row of species at the top) I could send it to a CSV, load it in QGIS, and join it to a vector layer I have for county boundaries of New Mexico. All the plants ended up in a long list of attributes for the county layer. Then through conditional layer styling, the counties can be set to grey if the species is present and white if it is not, like this:

That worked, but going through every species in the layer dialogue would take an extremely long amount of time. There are a few different options out there for automating map generation in QGIS, but I couldn’t find anything that would work for my purposes. I wanted to be able to open up the Print Composer, get things set up, and tell it, “Take this layer here, and cycle through all its attributes, generating an image for each one.” The Atlas Generator in QGIS can iterate map generation across features (rows) of a layer, but not across attributes (columns). That’s as close as I could get. Having hit a brick wall, I went to StackExchange and user underdark very helpfully pointed me in the right direction. Instead of trying to figure out how to iterate across attributes, it’s easier to work with the existing functionality and get each plant species’ distribution into QGIS as a feature in a vector layer. It would not have occurred to me that you could do this, never mind how. First, I needed to transform my data so that it has only two columns: the first is a county identifier (for which I used a 4-digit ID already present in my county vector layer) and the second is the name of a species. Each presence/absence cell in my matrix becomes a row. The second column can be generated from my matrix using the following formula in Excel: “=OFFSET($AQ$3,MOD(ROW()-ROW($BX$3),ROWS($AQ$3:$AQ$4400)),TRUNC((ROW()-ROW($BX$3))/ROWS($AQ$3:$AQ$4400)),1,1)”. To be perfectly honest, I don’t understand exactly how that formula works–I modified it from a template in one of the online Excel help fora (I’d put a link here but I forgot to bookmark it)–but it takes each column from my matrix and stacks them into one huge column. The first column I generated by hand; it’s just 34 big chunks of a 4-digit code, so that’s not too painful. I end up with this:

I deleted all the “0” rows (QGIS doesn’t need to know where plants aren’t and the whole shebang was 149,000 rows–it went down to 36,000 after removing the null rows), exported those two columns (BY & BZ) into CSV, and off I went to QGIS to try to join it to my county vector layer. There’s a slight problem here–these two tables have a one-to-many relationship. Each county has one entry in the county layer, but appears hundreds of times in my county/species CSV (once for each plant recorded from the county). When I naïvely joined them in QGIS, only one of the rows from my CSV was matched to each county, and the rest disappeared. Unhelpful. Fortunately, I was not the first person to encounter this problem and I found a helpful tutorial explaining the process. The short version is that I had to export the county vector layer to CSV with the shape information formatted as well-known text (via “GEOMETRY=AS_WKT” in the layer field) and then use my county/species CSV as the “parent” to which the new CSV-ified county layer is joined. Apparently, QGIS is perfectly happy joining tables with a many-to-one relationship; it just doesn’t do one-to-many. Also, because all the shape information is just a column in the the new joined layer, you can just save the whole thing and Bob’s your uncle–no futzing around trying to get the half-dozen separate files in the ESRI shapefile format to play nicely with each other.

If you were wondering what these files look like, here you go. You may notice that I’m using LibreOffice for dealing with CSV files. For some reason the CSV files created by Excel are not readable by QGIS. First, the county/species CSV:

The CSV-ified county layer:

The joined layer:

At the end of all that, I had a file that had one row for each species by county occurrence, and that row included the shape of the county in question. Progress! Next, I dissolved the layer on the “species” field, which results in the creation of a new vector layer (as a shapefile, no more CSV) in which all the various counties for each species have been conglomerated (no, I don’t know why this is called “dissolve”, since it does essentially the opposite) into a single feature. The last challenge was getting the Atlas Generator to create a separate image for each of these features. First, I set a rule-based layer style: “$id = $atlasfeatureid” (meaning “apply the style to Atlas’s current feature”) so that the current feature will be medium grey and everything else will have no fill:

I had been using the current KyngChaos build of QGIS, but the version of Atlas it uses has some annoying features–most notably, it changes the map extent to center each feature. Probably you can turn this off somehow so that the whole state remains nicely centered in each image, but if so I don’t know how. Second, I couldn’t get rule-based layer styling to work properly under the KyngChaos build (probably user error, but nonetheless…). So I tried the current nightly build from Dakota Cartography and it all worked nicely:

Now I have a huge pile of maps, each showing county distribution for one of the plants of New Mexico, and helpfully with file names that are just the name of the species. They look like this one, for Thelypodiopsis vaseyi:

The whole thing seems to work, and although it’s not entirely automated I think it’ll only take me an hour or so next time to go from having a new data file in Ken’s format (or a new version of my current spreadsheet; I’ve started looking through the data and making some corrections) to having QGIS plug away creating images. I’m sure it could be made more efficient if I were storing my data in a PostgreSQL database and all that, but this is close enough!

Organ Mountains-Desert Peaks Conservation Act

Yeah, I know, I never post anything here. Well, in any case…

I have mixed feelings about the Organ Mountains-Desert Peaks Conservation Act, but on the whole I think it is a bad idea. This act would create a new National Monument in the Organ Mountains and several nearby mountain ranges in Doña Ana County. It is being presented (as indicated by the name) as a conservation measure. There seems to be a common, but generally unexamined, belief that designation of wilderness, national monuments, and various other sorts of “special” public land is inherently a good thing for conservation. However, we should ask ourselves: 1) What are the threats to this land? 2) How will those threats be reduced or eliminated by this designation? 3) What other effects will this designation have–will it create new threats to the landscape, or reduce public access to it?

1) This is answered in one word: grazing. In short, we know that grazing has had severe negative impacts on the local landscape and we do not know if any level of grazing exists that will not simply continue those negative impacts. Other threats to public lands in the area include off-road vehicles (so far as I know, these are already disallowed within the proposed monument), mining (although there are no active mining claims in the proposed monument so far as I know), herbicide use (undertaken by the BLM in an attempt to “restore” historic grasslands–not currently occurring within the proposed monument so far as I am aware, but the program is continually expanding), residential development (through occasional sale of BLM lands–again, not currently occurring within the proposed monument so far as I am aware), and hunting (and, more than hunting itself, the various land management practices that federal agencies engage in to promote hunting–e.g., wildlife watering stations, vegetation management intended to increase forage available for game species, attempts to reduce or eliminate predators).

2) The act specifically states that existing grazing will be maintained. So the biggest threat to the landscape is intended to continue. For the remaining, lesser threats: OHV use, although already disallowed, could potentially be reduced by better enforcement; I don’t know how either mining or damaging “restoration” efforts would be affected, if at all; sale of BLM land for residential development would presumably not occur within a national monument, but the areas of the proposed monument are mostly, if not entirely, places where such development is impracticable or already exceedingly unlikely to happen; hunting would continue, although it is not clear if the various adverse impacts from game management would be increased, decreased, or remain unchanged. So, in short, the major threat would be unaffected and for the others there is, at least, not much to expect designation as a monument to have any significant impact. There might be gains, there might not. One would hope that, if a purported conservation measure will not address the major threat to the landscape, that at least such lesser threats would be clearly addressed and measures to reduce them be required in the act, but this does not seem to be the case.

3) After conservation, the second main selling point of the act seems to be that it would be good for business. It would bring more visitors and more money into the area. That, unquestionably, means an increase of threats to the landscape. More development, more people, more adverse human impact. The act does not discuss public access in much detail. Existing roads will continue to be accessible, but will there be more fee stations? More gates that are locked for much of the time? National Monuments also typically have much stronger restrictions on recreational activity–limits on camping outside of established (and generally expensive, crowded, and noisy) campgrounds, limits on off-trail hiking, and, of particular interest to academic botanists like myself, limits on collection of plant specimens or other research & educational activity. To what extent will these exist in the proposed monument? I haven’t a clue. It’s possible, I suppose, that designation as a national monument would not involve any such increase in restrictions on public access, but comparison to other established national monuments (e.g., White Sands N.M.) makes this seem extremely unlikely.

So, the take-home message seems to be: Designation as a national monument will not have any significant conservation value (it will not address the present primary threat, does not appear to be likely to have a substantial impact on lesser threats, and will create new threats to the landscape) and will probably increase the restrictions on and/or commodification of public access. At best, it’s a wash. At worst, it allows the existing damaging practices to continue unimpeeded while creating more tourist traffic, more development, and reducing public access.

Getting plant sex wrong (3)

Continuing my tendency to be irritated by descriptions of botany in the popular literature, I’m now reading The Forest Unseen: A Year’s Watch in Nature. I’m not too impressed with the book in general, but here’s a bit that’s particularly irritating (end of the chapter “March 25th – Spring Ephemerals”):

This intricate web of dependency dates back one hundred and twenty-five million years to when the first flowers evolved. The oldest fossil flower, called Archaefructus, had no petals, but its pollen-bearing anthers had flags on their tips. The botanists who described the fossil believe that these extensions may have been used to attract pollinators. Other ancient flowers also appear to have been insect-pollinated, further supporting the idea that insects and flowers have been partners since the first flowers evolved. How this marriage came about is unknown, but it seems likely that flowering plants evolved from fernlike plants. These ancestors produced spores that attracted insects looking for an easy meal. The ancestors of the flowers turned the plague of insect predators into a blessing by producing conspicuous displays to attract these spore munchers, then producing so many spores that thee insects’ bodies would be coated. The predators inadvertently carried some of this sporey dust onto the next flower, increasing the fecundity of the spore producer. Eventually the spores got wrapped in a package, the pollen grain, and the true flower was born. The bees and spring beauties in the mandala reenact the main theme of the original relationship. The bees, or their larvae, eat most of the pollen they gather, transferring only a small number of pollen grains from flower to flower.

To say “it seems likely that flowering plants evolved from fernlike plants” is somewhat misleading and at least unhelpful. Flowering plants are not particularly closely related to ferns; various of the ancestors of flowering plants back around their common ancestor with the gymnosperms might have looked vaguely ferny, but not in any way that is relevant to the evolution of pollination. But that’s not really too big a deal, it’s just a minor annoyance. The big irritation is here: “Eventually the spores got wrapped in a package, the pollen grain, and the true flower was born.” First – a pollen grain is not a package of spores. Each pollen grain begins as a single spore. Then one or more (the details depending somewhat on which lineage we are talking about) cell divisions take place inside the spore wall, and you have a group of cells inside the original spore wall, which persists more or less unchanged. If we’re doing academic botany, we call that an endosporic microgametophyte; in popular writing there are any number of less technical ways to say “several cells inside a spore” but “a package of spores” is just wrong. Second – pollen predates flowering plants, so identifying the origin of pollen with the origin of flowers is also wrong. All the gymnosperms, which do not produce flowers, do produce pollen. A few of them (Ephedra, for instance) even produce structures that look an awful lot like the stamens of flowering plants. The defining morphological feature of flowers, as compared to the cones of gymnosperms, is the carpel.

Getting plant sex wrong (2)

I’ve been reading Horseshoe Crabs and Velvet Worms by Richard Fortey. Overall, I’ve been finding it enjoyable. However, portions of the book cause me to cringe. Here’s an example near the beginning of chapter two:

These Gondwanan coniferous trees, with their relatively large leaves and bright berries, do have a very special appearance, at least to a European accustomed to pines and firs with their dry-looking cones. A botanist would remind me I should really describe the berries as “fleshy peduncles” because they carry exposed seeds at their tips.

What’s wrong with that? Well, the trees (podocarps in New Zealand, specifically totara, Podocarpus totara and rimu, Dacrydium cupressinum) Fortey is talking about do not have berries. He is apparently aware of this, but the way he presents it suggests that these things really are berries and that describing them as “fleshy peduncles” is some kind of obscure scientific quibbling. It isn’t: “fleshy peduncle” is right, “berry” is wrong. This follows an irritatingly predictable tendency in science writing about plants: present a misleading description as though it were true, restrict the correct information to some kind of afterthought, and don’t explain it enough for readers to actually figure out what’s going on. This both misinforms readers and gives the impression that the situation is hopelessly complex and cannot be understood by anyone who doesn’t have a PhD and a labcoat.

So, OK, here’s what a fleshy peduncle is. In conifers, a peduncle is a stem that bears one or more cones. In this case we’re talking about seed cones, analogous to the seed cones you’d see on pine, spruce, Douglas fir, etc. You know, these things. In the podocarps Fortey is discussing, the seed cones are very small, having one or two small leaves each with a single exposed seed. In these species, the peduncles bearing the seed cones are swollen, fleshy, edible, and look somewhat like berries. Why aren’t they berries? A berry is a kind of fruit. Fruits are found only in flowering plants (not conifers) and instead of leaves with exposed seeds they have carpels. Carpels are leaves that have been folded and fused into little chambers with seeds inside of them, protected from the environment.

That is more complicated than just saying “these trees have berries; well, technically they’re fleshy peduncles”. However, it’s also informative. Authors writing about science should aim to inform readers about science rather than reinforcing misconceptions and presenting science in a dismissive and uninformative manner.

Here’s a similar example from near the end of chapter 3:

Despite their apparent simplicity, Porphyra and Bangia have quite complex life histories. Cells of the “weed” contain only one package of genetic information; they are described as haploid. A second phase in the life history of these seaweeds is called the Conchocelis stage, which makes miniature branching plants, some varieties of which inhabit the borings they make inside seashells. These plants are so different from their “parents” that they were once given the separate generic name, Conchocelis, which is now only retained as a label for one stage in the life cycle. Conchocelis plants are the diploid, or the sexual, stage of the red algae. The leafy stage releases gametes that mate with one another, thereby doubling up the genetic content; this produces spores that can germinate into Conchocelis.

Some of the basic ideas here are correct. However, the definitions of “haploid” and “diploid” are misleading, the processes of fertilization and sporulation are conflated, and describing Conchocelis as “the sexual stage” is incorrect.

First, what does “one package of genetic information” mean? A package of genetic information could refer to a few different things. It could possibly refer to a gene, or a chromosome, or a nucleus. When discussing haploidy and diploidy, we’re talking about chromosomes, which are long strands of DNA, each containing many genes as well as regulatory sequences and non-coding “junk” DNA, bound up with proteins. So why not just say “one chromosome”? This would be less ambiguous, but it would also be wrong. One vs. two chromosomes is not the distinction between haploid and diploid cells. Instead, the distinction is how many copies of each chromosome is present. In a haploid cell, each chromosome present as a single copy. In a diploid cell, chromosomes are present in pairs. We could easily reword the second sentence of this quote to say “Cells of the ‘weed’ contain only one copy of each chromosome; they are haploid.”

Second, Fortey says that “the leafy stage releases gametes that mate with one another, thereby doubling up the genetic content; this produces spores”, which conflates fertilization and spore production. The union of two gametes is fertilization, the process by which we move from haploid cells to diploid cells. The cell produced by fertilization is not a spore, it is a zygote. The diploid zygote then goes through several mitotic cell divisions to produce diploid spores. By suggesting that fertilization produces spores, Fortey is simply skipping this stage of the life cycle and implying that fertilization directly produces spores, which is incorrect.

Third, Fortey describes Conchocelis as “the diploid, or the sexual” stage of Porphyra and Bangia. Sex consists of the production of gametes and their subsequent union in fertilization. The Conchocelis stage is not directly involved in this process: it doesn’t produce gametes and it isn’t produced by fertilization. Instead, the diploid spores mentioned above can grow into the Conchocelis stage, and the Conchocelis stage produces haploid spores by meiosis (Porphyra and Bangia produce multiple types of spores, which is rather odd). The Conchocelis stage is part of the whole life cycle in these algae and the whole life cycle includes sex, but that’s as close as it gets. It’s like describing a human liver as “the sexual stage” in humans. A functional liver is a necessary component of the human life cycle and the human life cycle includes sex, but the liver doesn’t have any direct role in sex.

The life cycles of Porphyra and Bangia are fairly complex and difficult to describe clearly and accurately. Fortey had two good choices here: either don’t bother with it since it’s not really necessary for the narrative of the chapter or go into the detail needed to convey what’s going on. Instead he makes a third, bad choice: discuss the topic briefly, confusingly, and incorrectly. All readers are likely to get from this passage is that something weird and confusing is happening.

That said, Fortey is doing far better at botany than Bernd Heinrich, who in The Trees in My Forest repeatedly refers to “flowers” of conifers. This is just wrong. Pines do not have flowers. At least Fortey tells us that the “berries” of podocarps are in fact fleshy peduncles, even if he does so in a rather unhelpful fashion. And maybe we can cut him some slack, since his book isn’t primarily focused on plants, much less trees or conifers in particular. Heinrich, on the other hand, wrote a book about trees, with long discussions of conifers, and gets it completely wrong. He tells us that conifers have flowers and provides no explanation nor any indication that this might not be consistent with what we actually know about botany.

Misunderstanding group selection (1)

I’m not sure why, but group selection seems to be a topic that inspires vociferous but poorly-considered critique. An example from Steven Pinker:

Human beings live in groups, are affected by the fortunes of their groups, and sometimes make sacrifices that benefit their groups. Does this mean that the human brain has been shaped by natural selection to promote the welfare of the group in competition with other groups, even when it damages the welfare of the person and his or her kin? If so, does the theory of natural selection have to be revamped to designate “groups” as units of selection, analogous to the role played in the theory by genes?

No, groups do not play a role analogous to genes. But that isn’t what group selection is about. Here’s the very short version:

Genes are the basic units of heritable information. Genotypes, however, are not directly exposed to natural selection. Genotypes are exposed to selection via the phenotypes to which they give rise. The question we are concerned with in the group selection debate boils down to “Phenotypes at which level?” Genes are expressed at varying levels of organization. Any particular cell has a phenotype. If we’re talking about multicellular organisms, we can talk about the phenotype of the organism. If we’re talking about multicellular organisms that occur in groups, we might also talk about the phenotype of the group. At which levels can natural selection apply, and, for any particular trait of interest, which level is most appropriate and enlightening? The “pro” argument on group selection boils down to: In some cases, discussing selection at the level of group phenotypes is both accurate and the best way of understanding what’s going on. The “con” side boils down to: It is never appropriate to talk about selection at the level of group phenotypes.

There’s a lot more nuance to it than that, of course, but the basic idea is that we’re talking about gene expression at different levels of organization. Steven Pinker gets it wrong in the third sentence of this article, and perpetuates that error throughout the article. As a result, I find Pinker’s criticisms largely unintelliglble. This is too bad, as in his other writings I’ve found him cogent and compelling.

Jerry Coyne has also been making criticisms of group selection that I find confused or poorly-expressed, but his errors are more sophisticated. I may get to them later.

The decline of field botany

An article worth reading:

Profiling prolific plant hunters provides insight as to strategy for collecting undiscovered plant species.

The gist is: the current situation is dire.

“Plant collecting is a specific part of the three-step process of plant species discovery (collection, recognition and publication), and as the numbers of professional taxonomists who classify plants decline, there has been a massive increase in the utilization of non-professionals to aid in this work. This study suggests that as science pushes for more rapid documentation of the world’s flora, policy makers and funders must examine how best to develop the experience and skills of selected individuals to catalog undiscovered plants more efficiently.

“One way for institutions to encourage the development of these skills is in performance evaluations, rewarding effective field work on an equal footing with number of papers published and grants obtained,” notes Davidse.”

In other words, there’s no money to do field botany, institutions aren’t encouraging it, we aren’t training new field botanists, and we aren’t hiring them. And that’s why we need to do what we can quickly and on a shoe-string budget.

Problem of Induction

A random thought–the problem of induction, popularized by Hume, is one of those long-standing issues in philosophy. The gist is roughly:

Inductive reasoning works by taking some set of observations and generalizing their characteristics to a larger set of phenomena. A typical example is this–How do we know the sun will rise again tomorrow? It has always done so in the past, so it will do so again tomorrow. We can take a step back and ask–How do we know that, just because something has always happened in a certain way in the past, that it will also happen that way in the future? Or, more generally, how do we know that we can take observations of some subset of a class of phenomena and then assume that the observed characteristics also hold for the whole class? Hume’s contention was that any answer to this question will, itself, rely on inductive reasoning (e.g.–Yesterday I predicted, on the basis of past events, that the sun would rise today, and it did! Therefore, the same reasoning will work again tomorrow.), and that’s circular, so we can’t get anywhere. Apparently, no one has found a way out of Hume’s problem of induction. We simply have to take inductive reasoning on faith, or give it up.

The alternative to inductive reasoning is deductive reasoning, in which we simply work in the opposite direction. We infer the characteristics of a particular individual from characteristics known to hold for the class of individuals to which it belongs. A typical example is this–All men are mortal; Socrates is a man; therefore, Socrates is mortal. Responses to Hume’s problem of induction focus on trying to provide a deductive proof for inductive reasoning. Nobody seems to have any qualms about deductive reasoning itself; there is no corresponding “problem of deduction” to complement the “problem of induction”. But we might ask:

So, OK, we can’t provide a deductive argument establishing that inductive reasoning works. What about the opposite? Can we provide an inductive argument establishing that deductive reasoning works? It is not intuitively obvious how we would go about this. For instance, we might pull out the old chestnut about Socrates and say, “Well, he died, so the deductive argument for his mortality works!” However, all this tells us is that the conclusion of that particular argument happens to be true, not that the reasoning works. If we followed that line, we’d end up having to say that any reasoning that happens to lead to a true conclusion is valid, and any reasoning that leads to a false conclusion is invalid… but that is in direct opposition to the operations of deductive reasoning. I can’t really think of a way around this problem. Maybe someone has done it, I don’t know. Maybe deductive reasoning just feels so right that we can’t imagine giving it up; but, then, we’re in no danger of giving up inductive reasoning, either, whether it can be justified or not.

Pointless trivia…

A job application (for a botanical position with the state of Missouri) had a field for typing speed. Since I don’t know how quickly I type, I figured I’d take several of the various online tests. Over four of them I averaged about 85 words per minute, which I guess is respectable.

Geranium dodecatheoides

My second new species from New Mexico is published, Geranium dodecatheoides P.J.Alexander & Aedo. Many thanks to Carlos Aedo, who knows far more about Geranium than I could ever hope to. Read the article here: http://www.bioone.org/toc/rhod/113/955. The location where I found it happens to be along one of the most readily accessible trails in the Sierra Blanca; it is surprising that it has not been collected before, but so far as I can tell it was completely overlooked. So, one more reason to keep your eyes open outside, even in areas where you wouldn’t really expect to find anything too exciting. I’m sure I’ve stumbled past at least as many undescribed species as I’ve happened to notice… with luck, perhaps I’ll find another that I can give a name with even more syllables!

NOAA

I just stumbled across a lovely interface for tracking precipitation in the U.S.: http://water.weather.gov/precip/. Previously I’d been using this site: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/realtime/. Alas, NOAA has discontinued that page and replaced it with something that is, to me at least, not very useful; fortunately, water.weather.gov is a great improvement.

It is also worth mentioning that I’ve always found NOAA’s website hopelessly baffling. They seem to be improving that; water.weather.gov is surprisingly easy to navigate to from either weather.gov or noaa.gov, but the cpc.ncep.noaa.gov side is hopeless. Suppose you start at the CPC’s “Monitoring and Data” page. Then you click on “United States Climate Data and Maps”, then “Precipitation and Temperature”, then “Recent Precipitation Maps”… and that sends you to http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/realtime/, where you are redirected to http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/gl_obs.shtml, which is apparently intended for global monsoon monitoring. Huh?